Home » SF: Recession “Increasingly Likely” Despite Hot Labor Market, Recovering Hospitality Sector

SF: Recession “Increasingly Likely” Despite Hot Labor Market, Recovering Hospitality Sector

Published: Last Updated on 19 comments

San Francisco’s hospitality sector is recovering jobs and the labor market is hot, but a recession may be coming, comments from the city’s chief economist and the most recent report from the city Controller’s Office reveal.

Leisure and hospitality led job growth among industry sectors as a strong summer travel season begins both locally and nationally. The return of conventions to the city is also helping. Hotel occupancy and rates in early June exceeded the 2019 average for the first time since the start of the pandemic, according to the Controller’s Office.

Meanwhile, unemployment in San Francisco fell to 1.9 percent in May, the lowest rate ever recorded. But job growth is slowing.


“At the moment, slowing job growth in San Francisco has more to do with labor shortages than with companies not trying to hire,” San Francisco’s chief economist Ted Egan said by email. “Active job listings far exceed new hires.”

That may change as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to lower inflation, raising concerns of a recession.

“I think a recession is increasingly likely,” Egan said, though the data in the controller’s report do not point to it.

Most of the data in the Controller’s report is backward looking, Egan said.

“Employment is generally a lagging indicator of the economy, and most of the indicators we’re looking at either directly or indirectly look at employment,” Egan said. “The only indicator where we may be seeing some softness is housing prices.”

Housing prices are starting to moderate in San Francisco because of rising mortgage rates and permits issued for homes have dropped since the start of the year, according to the controller’s report.


Bobfished July 8, 2022 - 10:13 AM

Gavin Newsome says no problem while vacationing in Montana.
Taxpayers Footed Newsom’s Security Bill On Vacation To State On California’s Banned List
What a slap in the face to all California taxpayers again!

To Do List July 8, 2022 - 10:30 AM

The only negative they see is weakness in housing? Really? GDP fell in the first quarter, corporate profits fell in the first quarter, inflation rose sharply, the Federal Reserve is promising to raise interest rates to hurt the economy enough that inflation falls, consumer confidence down, there is uncertainty about a war in Europe, opinion polls of corporate CEO’s say they expect recession, and so on. I guess everyone only sees what they want to see, including me.

The Fearless Spectator July 8, 2022 - 11:26 AM

The fact that they will put such statements in print is a solid reminder they think we are all stupid.

DaTruth July 8, 2022 - 10:39 AM

A recession has been “increasingly likely” for a while now. This is not new information…. we now wait for the feds to make it official.

miguel July 8, 2022 - 10:49 AM

The FUn (the people in charge want to make sure it’s spelled with a capital F U) thing about a recession is due to the lag in reporting the data, once it’s declared, you’ve already been in one for 6 months.

Pat July 8, 2022 - 12:20 PM

Get out of the stock market completely, or stay in?

chuckie the troll July 8, 2022 - 2:05 PM

If you have a taxable investment portfolio and are well diversified, stay put. That’s why you diversify in the first place. Selling will result in Capital Gains and more money going into Gavin’s pocket. I am leaving my deferred compensation account alone as well.

Guessing the market is only for people like Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein who have access to inside information and can vote for their favorite investments.

The Fearless Spectator July 8, 2022 - 5:48 PM

One further: If you have qualified accounts, start doing Roth conversions. Toward the end of each year calculate your estimated adjusted gross income and subtract that from the upper end of your bracket. Convert the difference to a Roth and pay the tax on it. This ladder approach will do two things for you: 1-Create a tax free cash flow you can draw from in later years only when YOU want to and 2-Significantly reduce your RMDs when you turn 72. There is nothing worse in retirement years then being forced to take out more money than you need, and then be whipsawed by the tax liability.
Further, if you think taxes will be lower in the future, I have a bridge to sell you. Your taxes will most likely be worse in retirement, so plan ahead now and give the feds the finger at the same time!

Noj July 8, 2022 - 11:17 AM

Keep juiggling those numbers as you step over the homeless filth…


FTA: On the convention side, San Francisco Travel experienced a significant loss in business for 2020 and 2021. After a record 1.2 million definite convention room nights booked in 2019, the year 2020 closed on a mere 121,000 convention nights. 2021 is expected to realize less than 50,000 room nights. To date 70 groups have canceled off the books between 2020 and 2021. Cancellations of citywide conventions alone represent a loss in direct spending of over $1.0 billion. Convention room nights booked for 2022 are currently 69% of 2019 actual, but uncertainty regarding convention attendance remains.

Ricardoh July 8, 2022 - 11:21 AM

All that has to be done is go for all the oil we can produce and inflation would go away. May help if the invalid in the WH would stop selling our nation’s oil reserves to the Chinese and India. The same Chinese company getting our reserves was the one Hunter was involved with. May still be involved with. The Blidens belong in jail not the WH.

Exit 12A July 8, 2022 - 11:53 AM

Biden did that!
This administration is the most ineffective, incompetent, and inept that we have ever experienced. …WORSE THAN JIMMY CARTER!!!!

Badge1104 July 8, 2022 - 12:42 PM
Jeff (the other one) July 8, 2022 - 4:22 PM

I disagree to a point Exit.. they are inept, no doubt, incompetent and ineffective, depends on what you are referring to. I do not believe for a moment that the significant downturn in just about everything American is by incompetence, but by design. While biden is incompetent, those “helping” hm make the policy decisions know precisely what they are doing. All these moves, and the consequences, are not by accident. Fortunately, I still have faith in about 40% of Americans, and we will, as a nation, survive this (in spite of the deliberate flooding of the nation with un-American non-Americans).

Badge1104 July 8, 2022 - 12:45 PM

My family already feels it! This is the first month where we had to cut back on food because the cost that gas has had on our budget. Add to that the higher food prices and we’re actually eating less! Maybe a good thing but we’re not going to be able to take it if it gets much worse, which I fear it will!
We are middle class, possibly slightly better but we feel we’re sinking. Joe Biden and the Democrats are solely responsible for this!

JRocks July 8, 2022 - 2:48 PM

Saying we are in a recession is so racist. The term “recession” reeks of white supremacy. Reminds me of another overtly racist word….. “filibuster”.

We need to kill the oil industry to save the planet, and POC. We only have 10 years until the world ends! Don’t you get it? Just put your mask on and go buy an electric car.

People are so shallow. Why are people so worried about eating and being able to drive to work? Who even works anymore? Nobody cares about your 401K boomer!

Check your privilege and wake up!!!! There is a war in Ukraine, men can have babies, and we need to codify abortions! Stop complaining. This is the new liberal world order, AND YOU WILL OBEY!

81 million people voted for this. All you gas guzzling, gun toting, bible thumping, tax paying rubes need to shut the F up… and accept the results of the most secure election in the history of all elections.

Original G July 8, 2022 - 3:05 PM

When it comes to “LEADING” a country biden is well on his way to making jimmy THE WIMP carter look like Eisenstein.

Businesses require two conditions to be confident,
Political stability and Regulatory certainty.

Neither were present during obama biden administration, nor are they present in California under newsom and DEMs “running?” this state.

Next Wednesday 13 July 8:30 EST the Consumer Price Index will be released. Two consecutive down quarters equal recession.

Younger generations are about to experience first hand reasons why Great Grandparents planted vegetable gardens, rinsed off aluminum foil and saved bacon grease.

Remind them it’s their reward for being uninformed voters, reelecting career swamp dwellers.

Dr. Jellyfinger July 8, 2022 - 4:41 PM

OG ~ Third paragraph….you spelled “ruining” wrong.

Original G July 8, 2022 - 6:38 PM

I do apologize for that.

Am not getting enough rest lately.
Dang people keep dropping by my shop at work, saying goodbye, reminiscing on working together over past 46 years and wishing a happy retirement. I’m missing out on my naps at work.

The Fearless Spectator July 8, 2022 - 9:05 PM

You guys are quite correct. Young people who voted for Joe Biden have no idea how spectacularly they screwed their own pooch.

Ten years from now, when they are still renting their home, the light bulb may go on. But then again, maybe it won’t………

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