Contra Costa is now reporting 1,296 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the county, which is 37 more than yesterday.
1,073 people in Contra Costa County with COVID-19 have fully recovered.
There have been 36 coronavirus-related deaths in Contra Costa.
Currently, the county has 187 active cases of COVID-19.
Below is a city-by-city breakdown of coronavirus cases for Contra Costa County:
RELATED STORY FROM FRIDAY: 1,259 Confirmed Cases Of Coronavirus (167 Active Cases) In Contra Costa County – 25 More Than Yesterday (1,056 Recovered)
RELATED INFO FROM FRIDAY (cases by city):
45 comments
The numbers for the last week have really picked up again. Very scary, anyone know if this was due to one location/facility, or just random cases?
It is good to see the hospitalizations down but what gives with the new case rate? Is that just a result of more testing?
More testing = more cases being found…..
Richmond appears to have the most increases over the past week.
Mother’s Day was two weeks ago. Expect hospitalizations to start picking back up in the next two weeks.
I’m not fear-mongering, and this is not rocket science. This is all pretty predictable from the behavior of people and the incubation time and typical symptom progression of the disease.
There is more testing, and that explains at least part of what we’re seeing. The rate of positive results as a percentage of tests has gone very slightly up over the last week, but basically sits where it was two weeks ago, so I don’t think this is a clear surge at all.
@LadyMom, you’re right, it’s not rocket science. But testing has gone up too. People who wouldn’t even have been approved for testing two weeks ago are able to get testing now. Even without symptoms. We’re catching more of the milder cases, presumably, whereas before you had to have symptomatic red flags even to get tested. We have to look at case counts AND the positivity rate. Otherwise we take good news (we are *finally* testing at higher numbers, yay!) and make it into bad (cases are going up, oh no!). These cases were likely already out there, for the most part; we are just finding them now.
People in the Bay Area have really been extraordinarily compliant with these measures, and in general support for them is still quite high. There’s a psychological need to find the bad people who are ruining it for everyone else – that’s why the NY media is so obsessed with the disaster in Southern red states that is always just around the corner but never quite arrives. “Just wait two weeks, and all those bubbas will be massacred by their anti-science governors. Oh wait, I mean’t four more weeks? Just two more, it’s coming any day now!” It’s why Andrew Cuomo gets praised for being good at news conferences (after contributing to the world’s worst outbreak and actively exacerbating the nursing home outbreaks) while Ron DeSantis gets treated as a know-nothing, even as Florida, with all its retirees, outperforms expectations. That’s why pictures of people on a beach, who look like they are crowded together, create viral freakouts (and stupid actions by their governors…). People want a scapegoat, and they look to their established enemies for one, or they look to people who are having fun that they aren’t having: someone enjoys themselves on a beach, with huge volumes of air diluting and dispersing the droplets they are emitting, and the internet calls them murderers. People go to work in the NYC subway petri dish, and its a big yawn.
@Steven – The numbers look like random cases in the community. For 5/17/2020 to 5/22/2020 there are 140 new cases. The distribution by age is:
Age 90 has 1 new case or 0.7% of the increase
The main observation is that the seniors are carefully sheltering in place. That makes sense as they are the most at risk.
What I have not done is to did up the census data for the county. Are the population numbers evenly distributed by age from 0 to 50? It’s startling that the number of new cases is so evenly distributed.
A bug in the Claycord posting system truncated my previous post. Here are the case numbers by age for the past few days:
Age <= 20 has 24 new cases or 17.1% of the increase
Age 21-30 has 25 new cases or 17.9% of the increase
Age 31-40 has 24 new cases or 17.1% of the increase
Age 41-50 has 25 new cases or 17.9% of the increase
Age 51-60 has 21 new cases or 15.0% of the increase
Age 61-70 has 14 new cases or 10.0% of the increase
Age 71-80 has 3 new cases or 2.1% of the increase
Age 81-90 has 3 new cases or 2.1% of the increase
Age > 90 has 1 new case or 0.7% of the increase
Yay! Concord’s count went down.
@Bad Nombre – the numbers for Concord went up from 118 two days ago, 125 yesterday, and 127 today. That’s nine new cases in two days. I’d call it a mini-surge.
The somewhat odd, news is that Concord’s increase is very linear and has increased by a steady 1.8 cases per day since April 5th.
As long as the number of hospitalizations stays low, the rising number of cases just tells me that herd immunity is coming into play. Us healthy people should be getting on with our lives while the immune suppressed can remain quarantined!!
Herd immunity does not kick in until 70-90% of a population is immune. we are nowhere near that – at best, we’re at 1-5%. And it’s not just immune-suppressed people who are affected.
I don’t think you’re understanding how herd immunity works. It’s estimated we need 60% of the population to carry the antibodies before we reach that herd immunity point. At present, we are nowhere near that number.
We almost surely aren’t near herd immunity. But we don’t actually know how many people need to be immune before that happens. It depends on the transmissibility of the virus but also on the organization of the population: if some people are high-contact and are most likely to transmit it, and they become immune, then it could be significantly less than 50% to get herd immunity. But anyway, if we are trying for that we are going *too slow*, actually. We’ll still have 90+ percent of the population susceptible when we go into the height of flu season this winter and hospitals are already burdened.
@Ladymom
Are you a scientist? 1-1.5% at best. Umm .. have you seen the studies out of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Los Angeles, Orange County, just to a name a few in California. Those studies, done by scientists and doctors, were several weeks ago now and they said, at that time, we were 7-10% depending on the study. I am no scientist, but I can read data. So if you think it is only 1-1.5%, provide your data. If not, quit spouting false news.
@Just a flu – I have read that herd immunity needs as low as 60% to as high as 100% of the population.
However, as COVID-19 is asymptomatic for many people they essentially have herd immunity though while they have COVID-19 they are contagious and can infect others. The percentages for how many are asymptomatic is still being figured out.
Also, it’s possible there will never be herd immunity as it has not been confirmed yet if someone immune to COVID-19 once you have recovered.
For other illnesses caused by coronaviruses the immunity has been found to last between eight months to two years. If that’s also the case for SARS2 and COVID-19 then any herd immunity will be temporary. It’s also not known if those that had an asymptomatic bout of COVID-19 could later come down with a symptomatic form and possibly a dangerous form of COVID-19.
Please read my post again with a calm mind and both eyes open. The Stanford “study” was flawed, and the numbers from Spain, which suffered much more than we have so far, point to 5%. We are nowhere near herd immunity, and honestly we don’t even know what percentage it would take or how long it would even last.
@Ozzie
I do not know the nationwide numbers … and since Newscum has broken off from following the federal government recommendations, I only cited the studies done in California. If my memory recalls correctly, those same findings were supported by studies elsewhere in country and throughout the world. Germany and Los Angeles both stated that the true fatality rate is 0.33%.
And for that, we killed how many through suicide?
How many were harmed by mental anguish?
How many people have lost jobs and homes?
I’m not protesting but I’m there in spirit. Instead I’ll be taking a foaming dump in my new Newsom Ne World Order underpants.
The info they give is OK but not helpful if you want to know what is really going on.
I agree. More people tested.. more people found to have it… best news would be if hospital and death rates stay close to same
Frustrated, you hit the nail on the head. Deaths and those in the hospitals down.
I can’t help but think living situations directly effect the numbers over the last 2 months.
For example, if a person is exposed outside the home, but lives in a household of 2, odds are, the 2 people will be possitive.
Now, if a person is exposed, but lives in a multi-generational household (say 6-12 people), then the exposure number jumps from 2 to 12, Thats a 600% increase.
Yes, definitely. Recent studies in New York were showing 60% of new cases were acquired in people’s households. Which is why they should be offering free hotel rooms with food and medical monitoring for anyone who tests positive. That way people can decide for themselves whether it makes sense to hunker down at home or not. Some people have elderly or vulnerable relatives at home, or they might not have enough space to isolate from the rest of the household at all. This could make a big difference, for comparably little expense. (Compared to the costs of prolonging the SIP, I mean.)
Orange County is now opening up. Yet they have had 4,841 cases and 88 deaths, and Contra Costa has had 1,066 cases and 33 deaths. Yet our county is still closed down??? Does not make sense. CC County Health Director is asleep at the wheel..
Or the OC public health people are looking at a bigger picture than ours are… Here we have stellar Covid-19 numbers, but doctors from our hospital trauma units are going to the media to sound the alarm about suicides. Everything in policy matters involves tradeoffs, everything. IF we are on a path to opening up with the spread of the disease continuing to be under control, then okay. But if we are just dithering along, afraid to make any move that will incur responsibility for growing numbers, then we have the worst of both worlds: we aren’t really making progress at finding a way to control this sustainably, and we are wrecking people’s lives, livelihoods, educations, and mental/physical health in the process.
Various sources have reported that people started drastically altering their behavior *prior* to the actual lockdown orders. Once it became clear that this was serious, and was here circulating, and life wasn’t going to magically go on as usual, people made changes voluntarily. That’s happening still in states where they had softer lockdowns or have lifted them: people generally aren’t packing into big venues, lots of businesses are still closed, people are cautious about visiting the elderly and vulnerable, and on and on. Some of those states are probably going too fast and may have to backtrack. But the predictions of carnage from three weeks ago have not come to pass. Georgia is not seeing catastrophic spikes in cases; neither is Florida. Which suggests that the lockdown orders, and their presence or absence, are not as powerful as legislators and public health people tend to think (or at least think in public). None of this works without the public buying in. And if the public is buying in, restrictions don’t have to be this draconian across-the-board. They can and should be more modulated: outdoor non-communal activities largely left up to people’s judgment and self-policing; businesses allowed to open with restrictions on density, ventilation, and sanitation. Here’s hoping our dear leaders are just holding the line on outdoor socially-distanced gathering through Memorial Day, and they’ll relax a tiny bit after that.
We know more now about transmission than we did two or three months ago. People outdoors, who aren’t packed close together like sardines, are at low risk for transmitting the virus. We should update our approach accordingly. This isn’t sustainable. At this point it is like putting or keeping a mildly ill patient on a ventilator out of abundance of caution. The shelter-in-place “treatment” itself is damaging, and should be reserved as a last resort, not as a long-term management strategy for areas with low prevalence of the disease.
Sorry, @gar, I misread your last line. I’m agreeing with you.
OC is over twice the population of CCC, by the way. But your point still stands. We are more closely comparable to Ventura County, and they are ahead of us on the opening schedule too (and they aren’t a bastion of Republican sentiment like OC, either). Both of those counties border LA County, which has far and away the most cases in California – there is no close second. If they have been able to take steps towards reopening without disaster, what exactly are we waiting for? Our region is more on top of the epidemic than Southern California right now, but we’re not acting like it. We’re acting like we’re terrified to make any move that will increase numbers even a little bit. That’s not wise, it’s cowardly. The disease is here, a vaccine is a long ways off in the best-case scenario, and we may need to be pretty strict in the winter. Do the public health people think it is going to be sustainable to maintain a shelter-in-place through the summer and into the next flu season? They’re living in fantasyland if they do. We need restrictions and guidance still, but not like this: we need risk mitigation and measures that are less destructive. Masks, distancing, lowered capacities for buildings, moving activities outdoors, putting students in smaller cohorts, allowing the vulnerable to work remotely wherever possible, offering quarantine motel rooms to positive cases so they don’t infect their household … lots of good stuff can be done to keep this from exploding. Come on CC Health, we can do this. We can’t do SIP forever.
She was JUST appointed. Not elected by taxpayers who are paying her salary. Democracy?
Orange county’s population is 3 times contra costa. And their cases have increased since things are changing. Today 216 reported cases just today and 12 more deaths reported today.
Here is your best source of stats:
https://med.stanford.edu/covid19/dashboard.html
I’m tired of listening to people talk about heard immunity.
That’s not what I herd.
I’m immune from all this talk I herd about.
It’s not acceptable to dismiss a higher count as a result of more tests — this would also imply that our earlier numbers underrepresented the extent of the virus and we did not do enough. Remember, we are in the process of opening up, and placating those who make poorly thought out comparisons with the flu or heart disease or subscribe to extreme right conspiracy theories. If we get an uptick in cases, we will be endangering people’s lives.
Bill you must be retired you don’t have to worry about your business going under or paying your mortgage!
Yes, thank you Ann. The people making the lockdown decisions don’t seem to be considering the trade offs, like increased suicides, other mental health issues, increased addiction and overdoses, poverty and hunger (not everyone qualifies for unemployment), losing a business you planned for, invested in, and have lost everything due to forced closures. The people making the decisions shouldn’t be paid as long as there are businesses closed and people are unable to earn a living. Maybe they’d have a different perspective.
The data clearly establishes that we need to open up our economy and get back to business ASAP. 36 people dead and 9 in the hospital does not justify the loss of life from people who are not being diagnosed with cancer (average +36,500 per week), heart disease, diabetes, etc… Nor the damage to mental/emotional/financial health of so many people.
BTW- I’m not trying to instigate anything, but I expect riots this summer. Avoid LA, Chicago, Detroit, etc…
Excellent point. I also expect war with sicko China, so pull out of the stock market like a Billum Bagasy ASAP!
I don’t know why CoCo County is shut down. Nobody where I live is self-distancing so you might as well open up businesses.
– Neighbors are chit-chatting together in the street & letting their children play together.
– Many are walking right by each other on the sidewalks nearly brushing their shoulders together.
– Most people are wearing their mask underneath their chin which completely defeats the purpose of wearing it.
– Almost every person I saw reached their hand for the store’s door handle, then immediately used that hand to adjust their mask, thereby wiping whatever is on that public door handle onto their mask which will remain there to breathe in until they use a new mask.
Yep, I’ve had similar observations for a while. A lot of people have barely been following it for weeks now and the hospitals are nowhere near overwhelmed. I’m guessing it initially slowed things, but I’m not sure the SIP was as effective as they thought or that many people were as strict as they assumed. Despite not being particularly worried about Covid after more data came in, based on the high survivability, I’ve followed the rules- but at this point it’s just punishing people like me. If the hospitals are unlikely to get overwhelmed, like the head of John Muir trauma just suggested (article below), then it’s time to let those of us that feel comfortable doing it, start repairing our society and see how it goes. People who are still concerned, or who have a condition that lowers their survivability, can stay home and continue to get delivery. The worst part has been having to listen to preachy people insist on keeping the lockdown, and then watching them do a crappier job of following the rules than me.
May you graduate at the head of your class with your wise observations.
–People brush by me regularly and when I have no choice but to do the same I get verbally berated. REALLY? Stay home.
–Keeping your nose outside of your mask like many of the mentals working at CVS Pharmay of all places is like letting your junk flap out of your jock strap
–Healthcare workers are out in full force in full scrubs, unwashed after taking care of infected patients. But everyone else needs to wash their masks and their clothes every time they leave the house?
–Owners are continuing to let dogs sniff and jump on strangers. Dogs don’t wear masks but are supposedly carriers. They never belonged inside restaurants and retail in the first place. Love discovering turds on the Nordstrom floor.
–EVERYONE is on their phone and nobody is taking about washing those as frequently as your hands meanwhile everyone sits on the toilet with them
–My six-foot-wide neighbors are not only chit chatting in the street, they are sh*talking about Trump in their trashy lawn chairs en masse in the front yards while their front porch has become a place for the overweight to throw eights and pound cement doing jump squats and leaving food in the cul de sac.
Go America!
My real concern is that we will all soon be asked to bear tattoos like barcodes that can be scanned by Nazi Gav Germany. I was told by a restaurant owner the health department sends them emails independent of what’s on the news telling them when they can open. I do not understand why Solano and Marin and Napa counties are already open. They were saying it was going to be this week for the brave in CC who dare to stand up and fight for their rights but I have yet to see it.
as of 05/23:
1,296 confirmed cases (CCC) with 36 deaths = 2.78% death rate.
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